AGP Executive Report

Oil & Gas Deal: Petrobras signed a memorandum with Mexico’s Pemex to jointly evaluate and develop Gulf of Mexico projects, including deepwater and ultra-deepwater areas, with a two-year, non-binding framework. Capital Markets: Brazil is pushing deeper ties with China’s investors via a partnership that brings B3 market data into Wind Financial Terminal, aiming to boost transparency and attract capital. Payments & Fintech: CSU Digital highlighted its U.S. card-processing expansion at an executive summit in New York, bringing Brazil’s payments scale to U.S. infrastructure discussions. Agribusiness & Trade: ECLAC reported U.S. FDI into Latin America fell 11% in 2025, while Europe gained ground—an alert for investment flows tied to trade policy shifts. Aquaculture: FAO data shows global aquaculture hit a record 235 million tons in 2024, with Latin America exporting $27B led by Chilean salmon and regional shrimp. Energy Transition Policy: Brazil’s local-content “kitchen” debate continues, using lessons from Brazil and Norway to stress how rules and capacity shape outcomes in extractive sectors. Amazon Politics Watch: Colombia’s election momentum is reigniting debate on whether Amazon countries may tilt toward extractive growth and tighter state control.

Ethanol Policy Check: India’s government says E20 ethanol blending is safe and won’t invalidate vehicle insurance, citing global use (including Brazil’s higher E27 blends) and arguing the program cuts crude-oil imports and supports farmers. Agri & Commodities Watch: India’s sugar exports could stay constrained for years as ethanol demand and El Niño-linked weather risks squeeze supply, with knock-on effects for global sugar prices. Industrial Tech Markets: New reports flag fast growth in optical sorters (for food, recycling, mining, pharma) and electric shoe polishers, pointing to wider automation and consumer-service demand. Brazil-Linked Mining/Finance: BRICS’ New Development Bank approved a R$61.4bn loan for South Africa’s urban utilities modernization, while other coverage highlights Brazil’s broader push for energy and infrastructure investment. World Cup as Business Signal: FIFA attendance is tracking record highs in the U.S., reinforcing how major sports events keep pulling spending and logistics demand.

Mining & Environment: Earthworks warns “zero tailings” is mostly marketing, not a real technology fix, pointing to the Brumadinho disaster in Brazil and calling for safer, transparent mine-waste management. AgTech & Food Tech: An IICA-led AgTech Radar study maps 2,656 startups across Latin America and the Caribbean, with Brazil dominating (2,075 firms) and innovation concentrated in the Southern Cone. AI Infrastructure: RAVEL was picked by RT-One to build federated, sovereign AI infrastructure across Brazil and the U.S., aiming to simplify hybrid operations for large-scale workloads. Energy & Trade Security: BRICS security chiefs met in New Delhi, with Ajit Doval highlighting terrorism, cyber risks, and energy/food supply-chain disruptions; the Strait of Hormuz reopening was framed as a relief for fertiliser and chemicals bottlenecks. Brazil-US Tariffs: Senator Flavio Bolsonaro registered to oppose a proposed 25% U.S. tariff on Brazilian goods at a July 6 hearing. Industrial Services: ABL expands asset integrity management in Brazil via a new Salvador office to support oil & gas, maritime, engineering and renewables projects.

Energy Security & Transition: A Strait of Hormuz disruption is still rippling through oil, shipping, industrial supply chains and inflation, pushing the energy transition debate toward security and resilience, not just sustainability. Health Diagnostics Market: Sepsis and microbiology testing are forecast to surge globally, with sepsis diagnostics projected to reach $1.69B by 2035 and microbiology testing $16.41B by 2035, driven by faster molecular workflows and antimicrobial resistance monitoring. Space & Connectivity: China’s Starlink rival SpaceSail launched a new fundraising round and says it has Brazil contracts while targeting a massive low-orbit satellite constellation. BRICS Security: India hosted top Indian and Iranian security officials at a BRICS meeting that also included China’s FM, with Middle East developments and energy concerns on the agenda. Brazil Agribusiness Watch: Analysts question whether Brazil’s soybean and corn growth can keep pace in 2027 amid high fertilizer costs, tight credit and El Niño weather risk. AI Commerce in Brazil: Sea and OpenAI expanded Shopee’s integration into ChatGPT, adding AI-powered product discovery and seller tools for Brazil and Southeast Asia.

Amazon Land Rights & Cattle Conflict: Brazil’s crackdown in the Piripkura Indigenous Territory is showing early results, with satellite analysis pointing to reduced deforestation in 2025, but about 1,000 cattle left by invaders still remain and ranchers have not received federal authorization to remove them. Antitrust & Digital Commerce: Apple’s iOS changes in Brazil are rolling out under CADE’s antitrust settlement, letting users access third-party app stores and enabling developers to process payments outside Apple’s system—while Apple still takes a commission on many transactions. EU Food Strategy: A draft EU protein strategy ahead of a July release flags concerns about a Brazil-to-China trade deficit and pushes for more domestic protein crops to boost strategic autonomy in food, feed and fuels. Aviation & Industry Efficiency: IATA’s Rio AGM spotlights airline efficiency and standardized emissions reporting, with LATAM using AI and tech to cut costs and support net-zero goals. Energy & Defense Supply Chains: India and the UAE are reportedly in early talks on defense sales, including BrahMos and Akashteer, as the Gulf boosts procurement amid West Asia security pressures. Trade & Manufacturing Demand: Malaysia reports trade growth driven by AI infrastructure demand and energy products, with semiconductor exports rising sharply—an indirect signal for regional supply chains feeding global industry.

Digital Payments in Brazil: Bain & Company says Pix and cards have pushed digital payments to 85% penetration by end-2025, with banking inclusion rising to 90% (2023). It still sees room for growth of up to 38% by 2030, with a profit pool around R$120bn. Brazil-China Finance: Brazil’s finance minister Dario Durigan is reportedly set to visit China to advance panda bonds and discuss EcoInvest, aiming to pull in capital for the ecological transition. Critical Minerals & Rare Earths: Power Minerals launched a mineralogical program at its Morro do Ferro project in Brazil to target premium magnet rare earths (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb). Climate Finance Pressure: At Bonn talks, the Global Climate and Health Alliance accused developed countries of blocking adaptation finance progress and failing to honor a pledge to triple adaptation funding. Energy Transition Watch: A report on EV growth highlights that Chinese automakers are expanding fast, but charging networks lag—an issue relevant for Brazil’s electrification push. Agribusiness Supply Risks: India’s sugar exports may be paused for up to three seasons due to El Niño and ethanol demand, potentially shifting pressure onto Brazil and Thailand.

Climate-Health Innovation: Grand Challenges Canada and the Science for Africa Foundation launched “Nexa,” a new initiative to fund locally led climate-health innovations, with the first funding call opening June 22 across Africa and the Americas and a goal of mobilizing over US$50m. Legal Cooperation: Angola and Brazil will hold the first Judicial Dialogue in Luanda (June 22–26), bringing together Supreme Court and justice-sector leaders to share practices on civil, criminal, family, domestic violence, itinerant justice and consumer protection. Amazon & Health: Indigenous Amazon defender Raoni Metuktire underwent surgery in São Paulo for an intestinal obstruction and is recovering in intensive care, described as serious but stable. Energy Diplomacy: India will host the 11th BRICS Energy Ministers’ Meeting on June 25–26 in Gurugram under “Energy for All,” aiming to boost energy security, sustainability and innovation across BRICS. Agri & Weather Risk: El Niño has officially begun, with forecasters warning it could be the strongest this century—raising the odds of droughts and heavy rainfall that can disrupt agriculture and food security. Aviation Connectivity: Air Peace received approval for direct scheduled flights between Nigeria and Brazil, cutting travel time and supporting cargo and mail services. Industry Watch (Petrochemicals): Braskem is pushing production higher despite falling prices, banking on a market rebound starting in 2028 as Middle East plant outages create a temporary supply gap.

Brazil EV Manufacturing: BYD is ramping up battery production in Brazil, aiming for 50% domestic content in its locally made cars by early 2027 and investing about $100 million in battery energy storage to support the grid. Agribusiness & Food Security: USDA says the US grain production environment is improving, while global wheat supplies are raised on better output in Russia, Turkey and Ukraine—an important read-through for commodity pricing. Public Health: A new study warns vaccine uptake has been sliding in Brazil and South Africa since mid-2010s, reversing gains for measles, polio and other childhood vaccines. Climate & Industry Risk: Scientists warn Brazil’s coral reefs are increasingly vulnerable to marine heatwaves and El Niño-linked warming, with knock-on effects for food security and livelihoods across the Global South. Energy & Trade: US and Iran are set to discuss details in Switzerland after Iran said it closed the Strait of Hormuz again, a reminder that shipping and energy routes can swing fast. World Cup Economy: Brazil’s World Cup win over Haiti drew big crowds in Philadelphia, with fans turning matchday into local business and community momentum.

Rare-Earth Mining Lobbying: Inter-American Development Bank chief Ilan Goldfajn met Pope Leo XIV to argue rare-earth mining can benefit Latin America if done responsibly, amid Vatican calls to divest and concerns over Indigenous impacts. Brazilian Agribusiness Power Struggle: A new analysis traces how “Agri-Bolsonarism” links rural lobby grievances to environmental governance fights, with multinational agribusiness, small farmers, and extractive interests pulling in different directions. Microplastics via Seafood: A UNIRIO study says mussels can pass microplastics to humans, using Rio’s Praia Vermelha sampling and lab simulations published in Ocean and Coastal Research. World Cup as Industry Signal: Brazil’s 3-0 win over Haiti in Philadelphia keeps Group C momentum, while the tournament continues to reshape local commerce and logistics around major venues and fan zones. BRICS Security Agenda: India will host BRICS National Security Advisers’ talks (June 22-23), with emerging technologies and non-traditional threats on the agenda.

Brazil World Cup turnaround: Carlo Ancelotti made a key lineup switch after a flat opener, starting Matheus Cunha and pairing him with Vinícius Júnior; Cunha repaid the faith with two goals in 13 minutes as Brazil beat Haiti 3-0 in Group C at Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field. Fan economy in action: South Philadelphia turned into a World Cup hub, with record crowds at the FIFA Fan Festival and tens of thousands packing the streets around the Brazil-Haiti match. Electrification push at COP31 prep: Climate talks in Bonn put electrification back in the spotlight, with Turkey and partners arguing it’s the missing lever for cutting emissions in cities and manufacturing. Retail media data infrastructure: Unlimitail (Carrefour + Publicis) picked Snowflake to power a Global Retail Media Data Hub aimed at better ad measurement and secure data collaboration. BRICS MSME cooperation: India used a BRICS MSME forum to argue cross-country collaboration can expand financing, tech adoption, sustainability and market access for small businesses. Scotland-Morocco fallout: Steve Clarke said refereeing decisions hurt Scotland’s chances after a fast Morocco goal, keeping Group C qualification tight ahead of Brazil.

Energy & Trade Shock: A new analysis warns the US-Iran escalation could keep disrupting global energy, shipping, fertilizer, food and financial flows through 2027, with normalization likely taking months or even years even if fighting eases. World Cup & Brazil’s Pressure: With the 2026 World Cup entering matchday two, Brazil face Haiti after a sluggish opener vs Morocco, and the focus is on whether Carlo Ancelotti’s side can find rhythm and secure a first win. Agribusiness Inputs: Morocco’s OCP is restarting full phosphate output while shifting toward low-sulphur fertilizer, a move that matters for downstream demand including Brazil’s soybean and legume growers. Logistics & Waterways: Argentina awarded a long-term concession to dredge and maintain the Paraguay-Paraná waterway, aiming to cut logistics costs—an important reminder for regional export corridors that Brazil’s supply chains also rely on. Digital Commerce: Meta is rolling out more in-app live-shopping tools and faster checkout features, pushing shoppable experiences across Instagram and Facebook.

Fertilizer Push: Petrobras plans to restart construction of the Tres Lagoas UFN-III fertilizer plant in Mato Grosso do Sul by September, aiming for operations in 2029, as Brazil tries to cut imported urea dependence. Energy & Shipping Shock: A new analysis warns the US-Iran conflict is turning into a prolonged disruption for energy, logistics, fertilizer, food and financial flows, with normalization potentially taking months or years even if hostilities ease. Aviation & AI in Brazil: LATAM says AI plus cloud is boosting maintenance planning and customer metrics, including more revenue-service days from optimized scheduling, alongside major inflight connectivity investment. Recycling Industry: Brazil is turning banana crop waste into fabrics, paper and sustainable packaging, though high moisture and fast deterioration make local processing near plantations key. App Security: Google outlined Android sideloading verification timelines, with user-facing protections starting in select countries on Sept. 30, 2026, expanding globally afterward. Trade Enforcement: US CBP seized 8,400 counterfeit Nike jerseys shipped from China to Brazil, continuing World Cup-related IP crackdowns. Labor & Supply Chains: Starbucks faces renewed claims of forced labor and child labor in Brazil-linked coffee supply chains.

EU Trade Tension: Lula urged the EU to review barriers on Brazilian meat and steel after Brussels moved to ban imports over health and chain-compliance concerns, putting Mercosur access and compliance costs back in the spotlight. Cement & Construction M&A: China’s Huaxin Cement is pushing to buy out CSN’s cement division for about R$12bn (US$2.4bn), but faces resistance from Holcim, with bids expected in early August—another sign of consolidation pressure in Brazil’s building materials market. Agribusiness Decarbonization: COFCO International is exploring sustainable ag supply chains and carbon removal credits in Brazil via a MoU with Patria Reforest Fund, linking regenerative farming and low-carbon logistics to tradable credits. Logistics Expansion: Speed International Logistics announced a broader multimodal network (air/ocean/rail/express) to support cross-border supply chains, adding capacity and warehouse consolidation in Shenzhen. Energy & Food Shock Risk: A new analysis warns the US-Iran conflict is turning into a prolonged energy, shipping, fertilizer and food shock that could weigh on global growth through 2027. BRICS MSME Push: India hosts a BRICS MSME forum focused on resilience, innovation and sustainability—aimed at strengthening the ecosystem for small manufacturers and exporters across member and partner countries.

Energy & Trade Shock: A new analysis warns the US-Iran escalation could keep disrupting global energy, shipping, fertilizer and food supply chains through 2027, even if fighting eases—raising recession risks. Brazil Energy Deals: Eneva’s CEO says Brazil is eyeing new opportunities in Venezuela after regulatory changes, especially gas-fired power projects, though no concrete deals are announced. G7 & AI Governance: G7 leaders in Evian focused on AI guardrails and US dominance, with France pushing for shared regulation and concerns over “frontier” AI risks. Retail Media in Brazil: NIQ is partnering with Unlimitail to link retail media exposure to verified sales outcomes, starting pilots with Carrefour in Brazil. Agriculture Infrastructure: Brazil’s agricultural expansion is forcing new logistics routes—yet infrastructure gaps could still cap growth, according to a Foreign Agricultural Service report. Sugar Industry Rescue: Tongaat Hulett narrowly avoided liquidation via a rescue agreement, potentially protecting 250,000 jobs and highlighting pressure from imports and health levies. Brazil-Linked Aviation: Telefónica is using real-time Wi‑Fi analytics to improve in-home connectivity performance at scale.

G7 Sanctions & Iran Deal: G7 leaders in France backed Trump’s tentative Iran framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend a ceasefire, while also agreeing to tighten sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas sectors—moves that could ripple through global energy, shipping and commodity costs. Critical Minerals Push: The bloc also pledged to cut dependence on any single outside supplier for rare earths and permanent magnets, with IEA-backed stockpiling, recycling and a new critical-minerals platform starting with lithium and nickel. Brazil–EU Trade Tension: President Lula met EU leaders to address barriers on Brazilian exports, including a planned EU meat import ban tied to health and antimicrobial rules. Brazil Finance & Payments: Trace Finance raised $32m to expand stablecoin settlement infrastructure beyond Brazil across Latin America and Asia-Pacific. Aviation Liability Watch: A fatal Rio helicopter crash involving singer Oliver Tree is prompting scrutiny of aviation compliance and operator liability. EV Momentum in Brazil: Brazil’s EV market hit 13.5% share in May, signaling faster local adoption and regional supply potential. Biofuels for Shipping: Maersk’s ethanol trials and Vale’s ethanol-capable vessels point to a new marine fuel demand track for corn and biofuel producers.

G7 Summit Signals Pressure on Energy and Debt: Leaders meeting in France pledged to tighten sanctions on Russia, including oil and gas, and backed a U.S.-Iran deal aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz—an effort tied directly to global shipping and commodity costs. They also promised stronger action on high debt burdens for developing countries, pushing reforms and more private investment. Pandemic Treaty Push from Brazil: WHO chief Tedros and Brazil’s Lula urged countries to finalize the WHO pandemic agreement at high political level, warning “another pandemic will not wait,” as negotiations on pathogen access and benefit sharing remain stalled. Brazil Legal/Tech Shock: Brazil asked a court to dismiss a suit by Trump’s media company Rumble against a Brazilian Supreme Court justice’s gag orders, citing foreign sovereign immunity. Mining & Critical Minerals Funding: St George Mining secured about A$60m to accelerate its Araxá rare earths and niobium project in Minas Gerais, highlighting Brazil’s role in new supply chains. Agribusiness and Trade: Brazil-linked coverage also flagged fertilizer and food-security concerns amid global energy disruption, while Brazil’s agricultural credit stress and farm auctions drew attention. Global Industry Watch: A report warns the US-Iran escalation could keep energy, logistics, fertilizer and food systems under strain through 2027, with knock-on effects for growth.