AGP Executive Report

Trade & Food Security: China agreed to buy at least $17B a year in U.S. ag products through 2028, including beef and poultry, as part of a broader Trump-Xi package—an attempt to cushion American farmers after trade-war shocks and shipping disruptions tied to the Iran conflict. Global Finance: G-7 finance chiefs met in Paris to weigh the economic fallout from the Iran war, with oil-price pressure and bond-market volatility topping the agenda. Brazilian Industry & Markets: Brazil’s Anbima has a new chief, signaling room to tighten regulation as capital markets keep growing. Manufacturing & Tech: Comau is moving deeper into warehouse automation by signing to acquire Brazil-based Invent (closing expected in Q3 2026). Legal & IP: Brazilian silicone maker Silimed won a major patent dispute in Europe’s Unified Patent Court, setting up potential damages. Energy & Logistics: Platts will tweak Atlantic LNG cargo quantity standards from June 16, affecting how prices are assessed.

Energy Pulse: Petrobras says its refineries are running above capacity again—FUT hit 97.4% in March and the company expects April and May to push past 100%, underscoring how hard it’s working to boost fuel supply while reducing import dependence. Data-Center Power Deal: Omnia and Casa dos Ventos signed a ~$2bn long-tenor renewable power agreement to anchor a 200 MW ByteDance data-centre campus in Pecém, turning Brazil’s wind pipeline into a first-in-LatAm demand anchor. Trade Shock Watch: China agreed to ramp purchases of U.S. beef and poultry after the Trump-Xi summit, a reminder that global ag flows can swing fast—something Brazilian exporters will be watching closely. Culture & Cities: São Paulo ranked among the world’s top art-and-culture cities for 2026, with strong scores for affordability and visual arts institutions. Mining & Critical Minerals: Brazilian Rare Earths plans to demerge its Amargosa bauxite-gallium project into a new ASX-listed company, aiming to sharpen focus and funding for each platform.

US–China Trade Pivot: After Trump’s Beijing summit, China agreed to ramp up purchases of U.S. farm goods—boosting beef and poultry access and adding an annualized $17bn/year for 2026–2028—aimed at easing pressure on American producers. Brazil Textile Signals: Brazil’s apparel imports jumped 19%, with growing reliance on China, and the mix tilts toward man-made fibers and knitwear—an import pattern that keeps local manufacturers watching costs and demand. ESG Execution Gap: A new push argues ESG is moving from “metrics” to real capital movement—highlighting how policy design only matters when it changes incentives on the ground. Tech & Telecom: ZTE showcased AI-and-network “two-way integration” at GSMA M360 LATAM, pitching operators’ shift from connectivity to digital-economy services. Food & Water Tech: Drip irrigation is reported to cut coffee’s carbon footprint by ~60% and water use by 56%, adding momentum for precision irrigation in water-stressed regions. Brazil Watch: A Supreme Court probe into funding for an ex-president’s film keeps political risk in the spotlight.

Defense Spending: Brazil kept widening its lead in South America’s military build-up, with a 2025 budget of about US$23.9B (+13% YoY), while Uruguay posted one of the steepest relative jumps (+~80% to US$577.2M), according to SIPRI. Space & Security: ICEYE will set up its first Indian production facility for small satellites, aiming to make Asia-Pacific manufacturing a defense and surveillance hub. Energy & Commodities: Shell said Brazil became its top government-payments destination in 2025 (US$4.25B), and Goldman Sachs flagged Brazil as the strongest steel market in April-May, leading gains in hot-rolled coil and rebar. Retail & Logistics: Amazon Now expands 30-minute delivery to urban Brazil, pushing faster fulfillment as a growth lever. Food & Industry: Nestlé confirmed India is now KitKat’s biggest market globally—an example of how confectionery demand is shifting fast. Environment: A new study warns rivers worldwide are losing oxygen as warming accelerates, raising the risk of dead zones.

Climate & Water Stress: A new global study warns rivers are losing oxygen as the planet warms, with oxygen levels down about 2.1% since 1985 and potentially another 4% by century-end—raising the risk of fish die-offs and “dead zones.” Energy Markets: OPEC kept its 2026 oil-demand growth forecast unchanged while flagging tighter physical crude markets from Middle East disruptions, keeping volatility in focus. Brazil Industry & Trade Finance: XTransfer opened a São Paulo office to expand compliant cross-border trade payments for SMEs, signaling more infrastructure investment behind Latin America’s trade flows. Agribusiness & Fertilizer Security: Petrobras restarted its Bahia fertilizer plant to cut nitrogen import dependence, aiming to meet part of national demand and support jobs. Environment Watch: Amazon deforestation fell to an eight-year low in the latest monitoring period, down 36% year-on-year—though gains remain fragile. Sports & Brand Momentum: Hulk officially joined Fluminense, adding star power as Brazil’s mid-year transfer window approaches.

Biotech Push: The U.S. FDA approved Daiichi Sankyo/AstraZeneca’s Enhertu for two new HER2-positive early breast cancer indications, expanding use in both neoadjuvant and adjuvant settings. Brazil in the Spotlight: Paolo Sorrentino is set to direct a documentary on Carlo Ancelotti, who will coach Brazil at the 2026 World Cup—mixing archive footage with new Brazil shoots. Crypto Enforcement: Binance Research says law enforcement and partners recovered about 11% of illicit crypto volume in 2025, arguing crypto is being hit harder than traditional assets. World Cup Culture + Business: FIFA confirmed Shakira and Burna Boy’s “Dai Dai” as the official 2026 anthem, while separate reporting flags ticket-fraud risks and urges fans to use the FIFA app. Geopolitics Meets Food Prices: With Hormuz disruptions tightening energy and fertilizer flows, analysts warn of a renewed food crisis risk—an issue that could spill into Brazil’s export and input costs. Regional Trade Politics: BRICS foreign ministers met in Delhi but failed to issue a joint statement over West Asia, with Brazil’s Mauro Vieira stressing the bloc’s evolving, divided nature.

Resources & Security: The U.S. is pivoting harder to Latin America’s raw materials, with talks in Guyana focused on bauxite—key for aluminum—amid an energy crunch tied to the Iran war and rising China-linked competition. Brazil Legal Watch: Brazil’s Supreme Court opened an investigation into whether parliamentary funds were diverted to cultural projects, including a film tied to jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro. Energy & Biofuels: With the Strait of Hormuz still disrupting fuel flows, ethanol exports are climbing: the U.S. is up about 20% year-to-date, while Brazil could more than double sales in 2026/27. Offshore Industry: ABL Energy & Marine will support Subsea7’s installation campaign for Petrobras’ Mero 3 and 4 subsea projects in Brazil’s Santos Basin. AI for Disputes: Brazilian firms are increasingly using AI to prevent lawsuits and settle conflicts earlier, aiming to cut legal costs.

Amazon Crackdown: Brazil’s federal police, with Ibama, ICMBio and Pará’s military police, hit seven illegal gold-mining areas in the Amapá–Pará border, seizing hydraulic excavators, engines, vehicles, generators, clandestine camps and about 3,300 liters of diesel. Trade Friction: Brazil is pushing back against the EU’s planned September 3 suspension of animal-product imports tied to antimicrobial rules, warning it could disrupt beef, poultry, eggs and live-animal exports just as the Mercosur deal rolls out. Geopolitics & Energy: BRICS foreign ministers in New Delhi failed to agree on a joint statement over the Iran war, with India issuing a chair’s note citing “differing views,” while the Strait of Hormuz and oil supply risks stay front and center. Hydrogen Benchmark: A Fraunhofer ISE study says Ireland’s green hydrogen costs are broadly on par with Morocco, South Africa and Brazil, helped by wind, grid flexibility needs and policy support. Data Sovereignty: Equinix expanded Fabric Geo Zones to keep enterprise data inside defined jurisdictions across clouds.

Fuel Relief Plan: Brazil will soon roll out a fuel subsidy to curb price pressure tied to the Middle East conflict, starting with gasoline and potentially expanding to diesel later, with payments routed to producers/importers via the petroleum regulator and capped at federal fuel-tax levels. AI in Payments: A new push for “agentic” payments is forcing banks and merchants to rethink rails beyond credit cards, since automation could widen gaps if access stays uneven. Data Sovereignty Upgrade: Equinix expands its Fabric Geo Zones to keep regulated data inside jurisdictions during failover/rerouting events—an issue for GDPR, Brazil’s LGPD and others. Green Beef Signal: China’s renewed interest in “greener” Brazilian beef is gaining traction, with buyers reportedly paying for deforestation-free supply chains. Atlantic Forest Down: Deforestation in Brazil’s Atlantic biome fell 28% in 2025, hitting the lowest level on record. BRICS Energy Tension: India used the BRICS foreign-ministers meeting to warn West Asia risks could disrupt energy and maritime stability, urging practical coordination.

Labor Market Snapshot: Brazil ended 2025 with 59.971 million people in formal jobs, up 5% year-on-year, led by services (35.695 million jobs) while industry added 1.7% and wages slipped 0.5% to BRL 4,434.38. World Cup Pressure Test: With less than a month to kick-off, hotel occupancy in several host cities is lagging last year, raising doubts that the expanded tournament will deliver an early, broad tourism boom. BRICS Tensions: At the New Delhi BRICS foreign ministers meeting, Iran urged the bloc to condemn US and Israel, while India pushed for safe maritime flows through Hormuz and the Red Sea—an energy and trade issue that keeps spilling into diplomacy. EU Meat Fallout: Ireland’s agriculture minister welcomed Brazil’s removal from an EU animal-products import list from September 3, a reminder that compliance rules can quickly reshape Brazil’s export pipeline. Telefónica AI Push: Telefónica says it’s finalizing an AI gigafactory bid in Spain and stays open to European M&A, as the EU ramps up data-center spending.

BRICS Shadow Over Energy: Foreign ministers from the expanded BRICS bloc meet in India as the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz risk dominate the agenda, with oil volatility and fertiliser supply pressures hanging over talks. Oil Market Pressure: The IEA warns inventories are being drained at a record pace, meaning even a quick de-escalation wouldn’t restore balance fast—so higher prices and swings could linger. EU Meat Trade Clash: Brazil is bracing for tougher fallout as the EU moves to block Brazilian meat exports from September over antibiotic rules, adding pressure to an already strained sector. Food Prices Watch: India has banned sugar exports until Sept 30 to cool domestic prices—good news for local supply, but a potential tailwind for global sugar prices that Brazil exporters will feel. Tech & Payments: Stripe is pushing “agentic commerce” by enabling purchases inside Google’s Gemini, signaling faster, more automated cross-platform buying. Brazil in Culture: Latin American BTS fans are driving streaming momentum, with Brazil and Mexico topping first-week figures ahead of Korea.

Geopolitics & Energy: Iran says it will welcome India’s peace push for West Asia and blames BRICS unity problems on “one member country” seeking to condemn Iran, as the Strait of Hormuz risk keeps pressuring oil markets and the IEA warns global supply is shrinking fast. EU Trade Pressure on Brazil Meat: Brazil is scrambling to reverse an EU move that will suspend “animal” product exports from September over antimicrobial rules, with industry groups calling the timeline unfair. Agri Inputs & Costs: Brazil’s robusta coffee outlook is mixed—Espirito Santo may see slightly lower volume but better quality—while Iran-linked shipping and fertilizer costs squeeze farmers as robusta prices fall. Circular Economy Lens: A new look at how BRICS countries handle waste and sustainability highlights reuse and recycling as the practical path to cut pollution at scale. Health & Environment: A study reports microplastics in 90% of prostate tumor samples, raising fresh debate on exposure routes and inflammation. Aerospace Supply Chain: Embraer signs its first Indian forged-material supplier deal with Bharat Forge, widening sourcing for global programs.

Security & Elections: President Lula launched a new plan to fight organized crime, warning Comando Vermelho and PCC that they will “no longer be the masters of any territory” as the October vote nears. Public Health & Manufacturing: Brazil is deploying lab-bred “wolbitos” mosquitoes using Wolbachia to curb dengue spread, scaling production from a Curitiba facility that can generate up to 100 million eggs a week. Trade Policy Shock: Lula also moved to eliminate federal taxes on foreign purchases up to $50, a bid to cut costs for low-income shoppers ahead of the election. EU Pressure on Meat: Brazil says the EU has moved to block animal product exports from September, escalating a dispute that threatens a major market. Agri Commodities: Sugar prices climbed on expectations of tighter global supplies, while brokers see Brazil’s cane and ethanol mix shifting toward more ethanol. Industry Finance: JBS reported US$221m net income in 1Q26, citing strong Brazil operations and Seara performance. Tech & Materials: Rare-earth exploration headlines continue, with new reports of widespread REEs at Campo Largo in Paraná.

Aviation Deal Shock: Lufthansa plans to lift its stake in ITA Airways from 41% to 90% (closing expected early 2027), a move that could intensify its fight for Portugal’s TAP—regulators in Lisbon may get nervous about another southern-EU takeover. Brazil Macro Watch: Brazil’s inflation hit 4.39% in April (food and pharmaceuticals driving), while the Selic rate stays at 14.50% after two straight 0.5-point cuts—policymakers still cite Middle East risks. Oil & Shipping: DOF won a roughly $2bn Petrobras contract for four remotely operated support vessels, with Navship building in Santa Catarina; separately, NYK and Singapore completed an autonomous navigation trial. Trade & Industry: EU rules now block Brazil meat exports to the bloc from 3 September unless antimicrobial compliance is proven. Tech & Security: Sophos says 71% of organizations saw an identity breach in the past year, with AI accelerating the problem. Logistics Growth: DP World secured IATA certification for air freight forwarding in Panama, building on earlier Brazil certification.

Brazil–Kazakhstan Push: Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira says Brazil wants to expand agricultural cooperation with Kazakhstan, including organic soybean cultivation in Central Asia and a bigger fertilizer trade—Brazil imports ~40m tons of fertilizer a year, and both sides target $1bn in trade. Urban Mobility Deal: Kazakh e-scooter operator Jet plans to scale in Brazil to 200,000 units, signaling tech-led investment beyond farming. Fertilizer Shock Hits Industry: Mosaic withdrew its 2026 phosphate forecast and curbed output in the US and Brazil as sulfur/ammonia/urea costs tighten globally—an input squeeze that’s landing right as growers feel pressure. Debt Talks at Raízen: Creditors and investors are nearing consensus on converting 45–50% of Raízen’s debt into shares, with governance changes on the table. Policy & Travel: Brazil grants visa-free entry to Chinese ordinary passport holders for up to 30 days, aiming to boost business travel and trade ties. Health Watch: Brazil’s dengue control effort faces a race—Wolbachia mosquito programs are spreading, but the virus is moving faster.

Trade Pressure on Exports: Brazil’s exports to the US slid 11.3% in April as Trump-era tariffs bite, with sales to the US at US$3.121bn and the trade balance still only slightly positive for Brazil (+US$20m). China Pulls the Other Way: At the same time, exports to China rose 32.5%, keeping the diversification story alive. Food Inflation Risk: Global food prices hit a three-year high in April, with vegetable oils jumping as the Iran war tightens supply routes and raises energy costs. Climate Shock Ahead: A “super El Niño” is forming, with analysts warning it could push 2027 toward the hottest year on record—bad news for Brazil’s next planting cycle. Amazon Security vs Militarization: Indigenous groups urged the UN to curb organized crime in rainforest territories without escalating militarization, citing illegal mining, drugs, and logging. Industry Watch: K+S lifted 2026 guidance on stronger ag demand, but Middle East-linked costs still loom.